Fifth Rate Cut Looms: Bank of England Fights Recessionary Pressures

The Bank of England is poised to deliver its fifth interest rate cut since last August this Thursday, a clear indication of its fight against rising recessionary pressures. A quarter-point reduction to 4% is widely predicted, driven by a combination of rising unemployment and the negative economic impact of Donald Trump’s new import tariffs. City traders are placing high bets on this cut, with over an 80% chance predicted for the upcoming MPC meeting.
The Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, will undoubtedly welcome the prospect of lower mortgage rates and reduced borrowing costs for businesses, offering some immediate financial respite. However, the underlying economic challenges remain stark. The UK economy has contracted for two consecutive months, a trend economists attribute to the uncertainty created by Trump’s trade policies and the impact of recent business tax increases.
The labor market is showing clear signs of strain. The number of available jobs has decreased, dropping below pre-pandemic levels, while the unemployment rate has risen to 4.7% in the three months to May – the highest it has been since June 2021. This weakening employment picture adds urgency to the Bank’s decision.
Despite a previously signed trade deal with the UK limiting most tariffs to 10%, President Trump’s recent announcement of up to 50% tariffs on other trading partners threatens to disrupt global trade and further impede the UK’s economic growth. The IMF’s subdued forecasts for the UK economy, with minimal expansion predicted for the latter half of the year, further highlight the precarious situation. The Bank of England’s new forecasts on Thursday are expected to confirm a challenging period ahead, potentially indicating a prolonged phase of stagflation with high inflation (3.6% CPI) and subdued growth.