Middle East Upended: Israel Seeks Advantage in New Regional Landscape

The Middle East has been profoundly upended by nearly two years of war in Gaza, Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon, and the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. In this new regional landscape, Israel is seeking a strategic advantage, with Foreign Minister Gideon Saar announcing interest in normalizing ties with Syria and Lebanon. Saar believes Iran’s recent weakening creates a unique opportunity for new diplomatic alignments.
However, a core Israeli condition remains the non-negotiable status of the Golan Heights, annexed in 1981 after its 1967 capture from Syria. This immediately conflicts with Syria’s claim to the territory, which is largely supported by the international community despite President Donald Trump’s recognition of Israeli sovereignty.
This diplomatic initiative builds on the success of the 2020 Abraham Accords, which formalized relations with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco. Yet, these agreements faced considerable unpopularity across the Arab world, underscoring the deep public sentiment tied to the Palestinian issue, which could complicate future normalization efforts.
Indeed, a senior Syrian official has firmly linked any normalization to the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, which calls for Israeli withdrawal from all occupied territories and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. Israel’s Foreign Minister, however, countered that conditioning normalization on Palestinian statehood is “not constructive” and a security threat, exposing a fundamental ideological divide that poses a major hurdle to any comprehensive peace.