The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that Mexico’s economy will experience modest growth in the coming years, with a 1.5% increase in gross domestic product (GDP) expected in 2026, followed by a 1.8% rise in 2027. This forecast is attributed to continued growth in exports and a stabilization of investments, although uncertainties related to trade agreements could constrain economic activity.
Mexico’s export sector, particularly in computers and electronic components, has bolstered its economic outlook. This growth is partly fueled by strong demand from the United States for data center infrastructure and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. The country’s robust manufacturing capabilities and established supply chains within North America have reinforced its role as a key technology supplier.
Despite these positive trends, the IMF highlights risks, including the uncertainty surrounding the renewal of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA), which could impact future economic growth. Mexico’s macroeconomic conditions are currently stable, but this trade agreement remains a critical factor in ensuring long-term economic stability.
Inflation in Mexico is predicted to reach 3.8% by the end of 2026, slightly above the Bank of Mexico’s target of 3%. Nevertheless, the IMF maintains that external demand is expected to continue supporting the Mexican economy, mitigating some inflationary pressures.