Mexico is confronted with potential disruptions in its diesel supply chain following U.S. President Donald Trump’s support for a proposal to restrict or ban diesel exports from the United States. This decision comes amid a surge in energy prices globally, raising concerns about Mexico’s reliance on U.S. diesel imports, which account for over 40% of its demand.
In June 2026, Mexico imported an average of approximately 288,000 barrels of U.S. diesel per day, according to U.S. energy data. An interruption in these supplies could compel Mexico to procure diesel from farther markets, potentially driving up transportation costs and exerting pressure on domestic fuel prices, inflation, and critical industries reliant on diesel, such as transportation, agriculture, and mining.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has reassured the public of Mexico’s capability to maintain diesel supply through its domestic production and government support. She pointed to the country’s refinery network, including the Dos Bocas refinery in Tabasco, as a significant source of diesel. Furthermore, the Mexican government has implemented fuel subsidies and a price agreement with fuel retailers to stabilize diesel prices through tax measures and additional assistance.
Despite these efforts, energy experts emphasize the need for Mexico to diversify its diesel import sources, enhance domestic refining capacity, and bolster fuel storage infrastructure. This strategy aims to mitigate the impact of possible disruptions in diesel imports from the U.S., Mexico’s largest supplier, and to address broader uncertainties in global energy supplies exacerbated by conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine.
As Mexico navigates these challenges, the country seeks to reduce its vulnerability to external energy policy shifts and ensure the stability of its diesel supply chain in the face of fluctuating international energy markets.